000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080344 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JAN 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 1850 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION OSCAT PASS SHOWED A PAIR OF 50 KT WIND BARBS ACROSS THE GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS 13N. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE THIS EVENING AND FALL BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WED MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF NORTHERLY SWELL IS PROPAGATING S FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER E DUE TO SWELL FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS STRONG GAP WIND EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A 1036 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER ALABAMA FOLLOWS THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 30 KT WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING AND TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU NIGHT. SEAS ARE LIKELY AS HIGH AS 21 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10-11 FT BY LATE WED. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 05N90W TO 05N99W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N99W TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NE OF HAWAII NEAR 23N149W WITH A RELATED 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N148W. FARTHER TO THE NE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 130W IS SUPPORTING A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N133W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST S OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 125W BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH... FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO A POSITION NEAR 35N138W BY WED EVENING...AND LOW PRES W OF AREA WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS... PARTICULARLY N OF 09N AND W OF LINE FROM 21N140W TO 15N130W TO 10N120W BY WED EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT IN A MIX OF NW SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD NE WIND WAVES. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO 8 FT...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHER PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE NE WATERS...MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W BY 48 HOURS...AS HIGH PRES PRESENTLY LOCATED N OF AREA STRENGTHENS AND MOVES BACK. $$ GR