000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE JAN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
THE STORM WARNING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN 
EXTENDED THROUGH 08/0000 UTC BASED ON A COUPLE OF SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 
WED AFTERNOON. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG 
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A 1037 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER 
LOUISIANA FOLLOWS THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE 
TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BOTH WEAKEN 
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND END THE MOVEMENT OF COLD AIR INTO 
TEHUANTEPEC...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 
STORM FORCE THIS EVENING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED 
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE LIKELY AS HIGH AS 25 FT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 20 FT TONIGHT AND TO 10 
FT BY LATE WED. THE STRONG WINDS ARE GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF 
N TO NE SWELL DOWNSTREAM...WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXPECTED 
TO COVER THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 113W BY WED NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N85W TO 05N98W. ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 05N98W TO 07N110W TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ W 
OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NE OF HAWAII NEAR 26N149W WITH A 
RELATED 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N146W. FARTHER TO THE NE...A 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 130W IS SUPPORTING A 1026 MB SURFACE 
HIGH NEAR 34N132W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST S OF THE HIGH 
PRES 08N TO 15N W OF 125W BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA 
WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH... 
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... 
AND LOW PRES W OF AREA WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASING 
TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 09N TO 21N W OF 134W...AND FROM 09N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 134W BY WED AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT 
IN A MIX OF LINGERING NW SWELL AND NEWLY GENERATED SHORTER 
PERIOD NE WIND WAVES. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED 
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. SEAS WILL BUILD 
DOWNSTREAM TO 8 FT...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH NE SWELL EMERGING 
OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
ALONG WITH ENHANCED TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS 
BEEN PRODUCING FRESH NW FLOW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
WEAKENS.
 
$$
GR