000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE JAN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...CONTAINER SHIP DGTX REPORTED 
50 KT WINDS THIS MORNING WHILE TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS CONFIRMS STORM FORCE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN 
PLACE AS A RESULT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
YESTERDAY. 1039 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER S TEXAS IS FORECAST 
TO SHIFT NE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY 
WED. THIS WILL BOTH WEAKEN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND END THE 
MOVEMENT OF COLD AIR INTO TEHUANTEPEC...ALLOWING WINDS TO 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW STORM FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND 
BELOW GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE LIKELY AS HIGH AS 25 
FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 20 FT 
TONIGHT AND TO 10 FT BY LATE WED. THE STRONG WINDS ARE 
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF N TO NE SWELL DOWNSTREAM...WITH SEAS 
IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXPECTED TO COVER THE AREA S OF 13N BETWEEN 
92W AND 110W BY WED NIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N90W TO 05N100W. 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 07N110W TO 06N125W TO BEYOND 
06140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N 
E OF 85W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NE OF HAWAII NEAR 
27N149W WITH A RELATED 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 24N145W. FARTHER 
TO THE NE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 130W IS SUPPORTING A 1026 
MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N128W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST S 
OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT 
PERSIST FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 125W MOSTLY IN NW SWELL.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRES BUILDING TO 1030 MB THROUGH 
LATE WED NEAR 33N136W. ALTHOUGH THE LOW PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS 
SW TOWARD HAWAII...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT IN 
PLACE TO SUPPORT INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 
135W THROUGH LATE WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN A MIX OF 
LINGERING NW SWELL AND NEWLY GENERATED SHORTER PERIOD NE WIND 
WAVES. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED 
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. SEAS WILL BUILD 
DOWNSTREAM TO 8 FT...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH NE SWELL EMERGING 
OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
ALONG WITH ENHANCED TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS 
BEEN PRODUCING FRESH NW FLOW. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH 
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN