000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE JAN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...ARCTIC HIGH PRES BEHIND A 
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS  
RESULTED IN STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO SCATTEROMETER PASSES SINCE 1800 
UTC...A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN DCLI6 REPORTED NNE WINDS OF 43 KT 
NEAR 14.4N 95.9W AT 0300 UTC WELL TO THE SW OF THE CORE OF THE 
STRONGEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS 30-METER 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 KT AT THIS TIME. ACCORDINGLY THE NOAA WAVE 
WATCH BUILDS SEAS UP TO 24 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST PLUME 
OF WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO GALE FORCE BY THIS 
AFTERNOON AND TO BELOW GALE FORCE SOMETIME ON WED. THIS HIGH 
WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE AN EXPANSE OF 8-12 FT N-NE SWELLS 
PROPAGATING OVER AN AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W-114W THROUGH THU. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N90W TO 05N97W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N97W TO 07N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 109W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF COSTA 
RICA AND PANAMA WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...THE 
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE 
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N128W IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO 
MODERATE FLOW OVER THE AREA N OF 15N...WITH TRADE WINDS FARTHER 
SOUTH TO AROUND 15-20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL 
BUILD AND AMPLIFY TUE AS A SHARP TROUGH E OF HAWAII CUTS OFF 
NEAR 23N150W WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE 
PACIFIC NW COMES INTO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN JET STREAM SHORT 
WAVE MOVING SLOWLY INTO N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE STRONGER HIGH WILL 
ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT FROM 09N-15N W OF 125W. 
 
SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 6 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT W OF 135W BETWEEN 
10N-20N WHERE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PERSISTS. WAVE GUIDANCE 
INDICATES NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TODAY WHILE MIXING 
WITH SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL FURTHER S BETWEEN 08N-17N.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CONUS AND GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH 
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO 8 
FT...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
ALONG WITH ENHANCED TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS 
PRODUCING FRESH NW FLOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH LATER 
THIS MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
 
$$
COBB