000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC TUE JAN 7 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A 
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO GREATER THAN 50 KT. OSCAT PASS AT 1800 UTC SHOWED 
MAX WINDS TO 40-45 KT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 30 METER WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 55 KT BY EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY... 
REACHING NEAR 25 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST PLUME NEAR 
14N95W TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH WED. THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8-
12 FT N-NE SWELL PROPAGATING OVER AN AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W-
111W THROUGH THU. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N90W TO 06N101W. 
ITCZ FROM 06N101W TO 07N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS E OF 86W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF COSTA 
RICA AND PANAMA WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...THE 
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE 
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N127W IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE 
FLOW OVER THE AREA N OF 15N...WITH TRADE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH TO 
AROUND 15-20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND 
AMPLIFY TUE AS A SHARP TROUGH E OF HAWAII CUTS OFF NEAR 24N150W 
WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NW STATES COMES 
INTO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN JET STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING SLOWLY 
INTO N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE STRONGER HIGH WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS 
TO INCREASE TO 20 KT FROM 09N-15N W OF 125W. 
 
SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 6 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT W OF 135W BETWEEN 
10N-20N WHERE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PERSISTS. WAVE GUIDANCE 
INDICATES NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TODAY WHILE MIXING 
WITH SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL FURTHER S BETWEEN 08N-17N.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ENHANCE 
GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH FRESH TO STRONG GAP 
WINDS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE AND 
WED. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO 8 FT...EVENTUALLY MERGING 
WITH NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
ALONG WITH ENHANCED TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS 
PRODUCING STRONG NW FLOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT 
THEN DIMINISH TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
 
$$
MUNDELL