000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC MON JAN 6 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A 
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INITIATE A RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY. ASCAT PASS AT 1630 UTC 
SHOWED MAX WINDS TO 40 KT. EXPECT STORM FORCE WINDS BY LATE 
AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 30 METER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
55 KT BY EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY...REACHING 
UP TO 25 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST PLUME NEAR 14N95W THIS 
EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH WED. THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8-
12 FT N-NE SWELL PROPAGATING OVER AN AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W-
115W THROUGH THU. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 06N78W TO 07N91W TO 06N97W 
THEN ITCZ TO 07N120W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 87W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 
PANAMA WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...THE RESULT OF 
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 34N125W IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT 
TO MODERATE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N WITH TRADE WINDS 
FARTHER SOUTH TO AROUND 15-20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 
RIDGE WILL BUILD AND AMPLIFY THROUGH TUE AS A SHARP TROUGH E OF 
HAWAII CUTS OFF NEAR 24N150W WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING 
THROUGH THE NW STATES COMES INTO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM 
SHORT WAVE MOVING SLOWLY INTO N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE STRONGER 
HIGH WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM 09N-15N W OF 125W. 
 
SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 6 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT NW OF LINE 30N132W 
TO 15N140W WHERE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO 9 FT LINGERS AS NOTED 
IN A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TODAY WHILE LINGERING NW SWELL MIXES WITH 
SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL FURTHER SOUTH BETWEEN 08N-17N.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ENHANCE 
GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH FRESH TO STRONG GAP 
WINDS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE AND 
WED. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO 8 FT...EVENTUALLY MERGING 
WITH NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
ALONG WITH ENHANCED TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS 
RESULTING IN STRONG NW FLOW TODAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST 
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
 
$$
MUNDELL