000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061510 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JAN 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A FRIGID AIRMASS AND STRONG HIGH PRES FOLLOW A POTENT COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS ON THE NORTH END OF THE ISTHMUS. THIS IS THE START OF A RAPID INCREASE OF WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND STORM FORCE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 30 METER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 KT BY EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY...REACHING UP TO 25 FT NEAR DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST PLUME NEAR 14N95W THIS EVENING. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT N-NE SWELL PROPAGATING OVER AN AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W-115W THROUGH THURSDAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 05N96W TO 06N100W. ITCZ FROM 06N100W TO 08N120W TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 85W. MODERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...AN ELONGATED PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL REACH FAR TO THE W OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. SHORT PERIOD N TO NE SWELL WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 14 FT AND PROPAGATE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY MID WEEK. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF PANAMA WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS THE RESULT OF COMBINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD DOWNSTREAM TO 8 FT...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH NE SWELL EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALONG WITH ENHANCED TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS RESULTING IN STRONG NW FLOW TODAY INTO TUE. THIS HAS ALREADY STARTED PER AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO THAT INDICATED 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. W OF 110W...A 1021 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 31N127W. THIS IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N...WITH TRADE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH ONLY PEAKING AROUND 20 KT. THE SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 130W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AND AMPLIFY THROUGH TUE AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVING E OF HAWAII CUTS OFF NEAR 24N150W AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NW STATES COMES INTO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING SLOWLY INTO N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY AND ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE FARTHER SOUTH MAINLY FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 125W. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 4 T0 6 FT...EXCEPT NW OF LINE 32N135W TO 22N140W WHERE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO 8 FT LINGERS AS NOTED IN A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. ECWAVE GUIDANCE INITIALIZES SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MWW3 MODEL WITH REGARD TO THE NW SWELL. ALL WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NW SWELL DECAYING THROUGH TODAY...WITH COMBINED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT RELEGATED FARTHER SOUTH BY LATE TODAY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 135W WHERE THE LINGERING NW SWELL MIXES WITH SHORTER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. THE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT BY MIDWEEK AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. $$ CHRISTENSEN