000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC MON JAN 6 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BEEN 
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. COLD 
DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THUS ANOTHER STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 
STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
LAST FOR ABOUT A HALF DAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A PEAK NEAR 25 
FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE 
AREA OF 8-12 FT N-NE SWELL PROPAGATING OVER AN AREA S OF 14N 
BETWEEN 90W-115W THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WIND FORECAST USED A 
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS TAFB PREDICTION ALONG WITH THE 00Z GFS 
MODEL...WHICH IS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY WEAKER PEAK WINDS...RIGHT 
AT 50 KT...THAN EARLIER GFS RUNS.  IN FACT...THE GFS 
DETERMINISTIC MODEL IS THE ONLY CURRENT MODEL CALLING FOR STORM 
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY.  NOTABLY THE 12Z ECMWF 
MODEL PEAKS THE EVENT AT 40 KT AT 00-12Z ON TUESDAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N103W. ITCZ THEN 
GOES FROM 07N103W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 95W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF AREA AT 33N127W ANCHORS 
WEAK RIDGE N OF 17N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. A STATIONARY FRONT IN 
NW PORTION EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W. WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND 
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ONLY AT FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS AND THE 
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OUT OF OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  8-11 FT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONT WILL DECAY TO 7-8 FT BY TUESDAY. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DENSE AIR 
MASS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN 
WILL SUPPORT NE STRONG BREEZE GAP WINDS IN PAPAGAYO MONDAY NIGHT 
AND TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE WEAKER DURING LATE MORNING AND 
AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL APPROACH 8 FT. CONTINUED PULSING OF 
THIS EVENT TO NEAR OUR 25 KT AND 8 FT CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN 
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT...WHICH HAS 
BEEN ENHANCING TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE NW FLOW ACROSS THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 
TUESDAY.

$$
MUNDELL/LANDSEA