000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC MON JAN 6 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY. COLD DENSE AIR 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND INITIATE ANOTHER STRONG 
GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 
STORM FORCE BY MON EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH 
EARLY TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22-23 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL 
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE WED. THIS 
HIGH WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT N-NE SWELL 
PROPAGATING OVER AN AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 92W-110W THROUGH THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N88W TO 05N100W. 
ITCZ FROM 05N100W TO 07N118W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 94W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 114W IS SPREADING A LARGE 
AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO INCLUDING THE BAJA PENINSULA. HIGH PRES CENTERED 
N OF AREA ANCHORS WEAK RIDGE N OF 17N BETWEEN 112W AND 134W. A 
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IN NW PORTION EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 
25N140W. ASCAT PASS AT 1825 UTC SHOWED S WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT TO 
BE 20 KT OR LESS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TUE. 8-11 FT NW SWELL 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DECAY TO 7-8 FT THROUGH TUE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REACHING IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY MON WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF 
NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE DENSE AIR MASS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE GAP WINDS IN PAPAGAYO MON NIGHT 
AND TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY MON WILL ENHANCE TROUGHING ALONG 
THE W COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG 
NW FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL