000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SUN JAN 5 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY. COLD DENSE AIR 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO 
SOUTHERN MEXICO...INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND INITIATE ANOTHER STRONG 
GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 
STORM FORCE BY MON EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH 
EARLY TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 22-23 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL 
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE WED. THIS 
HIGH WIND EVENT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 12 FT N TO NE 
SWELL PROPAGATING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 
110W THROUGH THU.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 07N77W TO 07N89W TO 05N100W
THEN ITCZ TO 07N116W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 117W IS SPREADING A LARGE 
AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO INCLUDING THE BAJA PENINSULA. HIGH PRES CENTERED 
NEAR 34N126W ANCHORS WEAK RIDGE N OF 17N BETWEEN 109W AND 135W. 
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN NW PORTION EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO 
25N140W. ASCAT PASS AT 1825 UTC SHOWED S WINDS AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY 
FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W MON THEN DISSIPATE TUE. 8-11 FT NW SWELL 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DECAY TO 7-8 FT THROUGH TUE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REACHING IN EXCESS OF 20 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF 
NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE DENSE AIR MASS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE GAP WINDS IN PAPAGAYO MON NIGHT 
AND TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON WILL ENHANCE 
TROUGHING ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORT 
FRESH-STRONG NW FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING 
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL