000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051501
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JAN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE COLD 
DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG HIGH PRES 
BUILDING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND WILL INITIATE ANOTHER STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL STRENGTHEN BY MON MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 
STORM FORCE BY MON EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT. GALE CONDITIONS 
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE WED. 
THIS GAP EVENT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 12 FT N TO NE 
SWELL PROPAGATING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 
110W THROUGH LATE WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 05N96W TO 05N114W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS 
TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT COVER THE AREA FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 
100W AND 112W. THIS AREA IS FROM SUBSIDING SWELL THAT RESULTED 
FROM THE PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM EVENT. THE SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 
8 FT BY MON MORNING. 

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST 
WATERS. LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 25 KT WINDS E OF THE FRONT. 
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W MON WHERE 
IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 
FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
20N W OF 135W BY TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGH TUE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REACHING IN EXCESS OF 20 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF 
NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF 
THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THE 
STRONG COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING STORM EVENT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BY MON NIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL HELP DEVELOP STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 9 FT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH 
EARLY MONDAY WILL ENHANCE TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRES 
BUILDING N OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN GREAT 
PLAINS WILL COMBINE WITH THE TROUGH TO CREATE A PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWN 
THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TONIGHT...AND 
WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
AL