000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SUN JAN 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A 
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY 
AND TONIGHT WILL INITIATE ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY...WITH GALES COMMENCING AROUND 18 
UTC...QUICKLY REACHING STORM FORCE WITHIN 6 HOURS MONDAY 
EVENING. THE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY 
TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE PLUME. GALE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 
LATE WED. THE GAP EVENT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 12 FT 
N TO NE SWELL SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 
95W AND 110W THROUGH LATE WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 05N95W TO 
05N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 05N98W TO BEYOND 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE 
AXIS OF A PROGRESSIVE BROAD UPPER RIDGE SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE 
BAJA PENINSULA AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH 
125W. UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH MODEST 
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. 

AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 07 UTC INDICATED SEAS TO 9 FT NEAR 
08N95W. THIS IS EVIDENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 11 FT N TO NE 
SWELL GENERATED FROM THE PREVIOUS TEHUANTEPEC STORM EVENT. THE 
LARGE SWELL COVERS THE AREA S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W AND 
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY BELOW 8 FT BY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS W OF 
110W.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH NE OF 
HAWAII IS APPROACHING 140W N OF 25N. SEVERAL SHIP REPORTED SE TO 
S WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 06 
UTC...SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING BY LATE TUE 
FROM 32N133W TO 20N145W. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST WITHIN 90 
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TODAY 
AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. GLOBAL WAVE 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT FOLLOWING THE 
FRONT AND COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 135W BY 
TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TUE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS 
MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DUE TO SOMEWHAT ENHANCED 
TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
TONIGHT...AND GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC MAY BE SLIGHTLY 
SUBDUED MON MORNING. STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM CAN BE EXPECTED BY MON NIGHT INTO 
TUE MORNING HOWEVER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE SW CARIBBEAN 
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH 
EARLY MONDAY WILL ENHANCE TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRES 
BUILDING N OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN GREAT 
PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH TO ALLOW STRONG NW FLOW 
SPREADING DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING 
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN