000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SUN JAN 5 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A 
FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MON 
WILL INITIATE ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT MONDAY...WITH GALES 
COMMENCING AROUND 18Z...QUICKLY REACHING STORM-FORCE WITHIN 6 
HOURS MONDAY EVENING. GFS MODEL SHOWS PEAK WINDS AROUND 55 KT 
LATE MON NIGHT. EXPECT SEAS TO RAPIDLY BUILD TO GREATER THAN 20 
FT BY MON NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N90W...THEN ITCZ 
AXIS TO 06N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 125W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 5N. 
BROAD SCALE DIVERGENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING A LARGE 
AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED 
SHOWERS INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE CONTINUES N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. AN ELONGATED 
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. EXPECT FRONT TO REACH 140W EARLY SUN WITH 20-25 KT S WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME 
MORE ELONGATED THROUGH MON...BUT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ESE AND DECAY TO 8-9 FT THROUGH MON.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DIURNAL PULSING GAP WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WITH WINDS TO 20 KT AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 FT OR LESS THROUGH MON. GFS ALSO 
SHOWS NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXCEEDING 20 KT AT 
TIMES MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW 6 FT.

$$
MUNDELL