000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT JAN 4 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1622 UTC ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SHOWED MAX WINDS TO 30 KT. BASED ON THIS DATA AND 
MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...THE CURRENT GALE WARNING IS 
DISCONTINUED. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AREA WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH 
THROUGH MON MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS S MEXICO RELAXES 
SIGNIFICANTLY. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT 
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL INITIATE ANOTHER HIGH WIND 
EVENT MONDAY...WITH GALES COMMENCING AROUND 18Z THEN REACHING 
STORM-FORCE MONDAY EVENING. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N95W...THEN ITCZ 
AXIS TO 07N116W TO 08N140W. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 125W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 5N. 
BROAD SCALE DIVERGENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING A LARGE 
AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED 
SHOWERS INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE CONTINUES N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. AN ELONGATED 
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. EXPECT FRONT TO REACH 140W EARLY SUN WITH 20-25 KT S WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME 
MORE ELONGATED THROUGH SUN...BUT NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ESE AND DECAY TO 8-9 FT THROUGH MON.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DIURNAL PULSING GAP WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 FT OR LESS THROUGH MON. GFS 
ALSO SHOWS NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXCEEDING 20 KT AT 
TIMES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW 6 FT.

$$
MUNDELL