000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041530 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JAN 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS AS COOL DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER SIMILAR STRONG GALE WIND EVENT WITH PEAK WINDS TO 45-50 KT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY MONDAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N83W TO 06N91W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N91W TO 05N100W TO 09N121W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE AXIS OF A PROGRESSIVE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 114W SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A STILL RELATIVELY SHARP BUT WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST WITH AXIS ALONG 127W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 114W-122W AND FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 08N125W TO 17N121W. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NE OF HAWAII TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...BUT ASSOCIATED NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 17N140W TO 30N133W BY MONDAY...BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS FROM 04/0436 UTC ALONG WITH RECENT HOURLY OBSERVATIONS FROM RESEARCH VESSEL KAQP NEAR 10N104W INDICATED AN AREA OF WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE DOWNWIND PLUME FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP EVENT. WHILE THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE PLUME OF SHORT PERIOD N TO NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT GENERATED BY THE GAP EVENT WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL SHRINK CONSIDERABLY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SWELL DECAYS BELOW 8 FT AND SHIFTS W OF 100W. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT WERE NOTED PULSING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN A 04/0254 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT SUCCESSIVE PULSES OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE N TO NE SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC. ANOTHER PULSE OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IS FORECAST EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE REGION. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD N OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING STRONG NW TO N FLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S...ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACCORDINGLY. $$ HUFFMAN