000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SAT JAN 4 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...COLD AIR FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 
KT THIS EVENING. 0SCAT SCATTEROMETER AT 1850 UTC SHOWED RAIN 
FLAGGED WIND VECTORS BETWEEN 45-50 KT N OF 15N IN THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC. A CARGO SHIP WITH IDENTIFIER SMGW TRANSITED THE 
REGION TODAY...AND REPORTED 37 KT AT 12Z NEAR 13.6N 94.5W... AND 
39 KT AT 18Z NEAR 14.2N 95.8W. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 
BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO WEAKENS. ANOTHER SIMILAR STRONG GALE WIND EVENT 
WITH PEAK WINDS TO 45-50 KT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N91W...THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 
05N110W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED SMALL AREAS OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION N OF THE ITCZ 
PRODUCING EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 115W 
AND 128W. A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES N OF 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS STILL PREVAIL S OF THE RIDGE W OF 
115W. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST THE NW PORTION TODAY. 
FRESH S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING... 
WITH SEAS TO 8-10 FT REACHING NW PART.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE DIURNAL EPISODES OF 20 
TO 25 KT WINDS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BRIEFLY REACH 8 FT AROUND 12Z.

$$
MUNDELL