000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC FRI JAN 3 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...COLD AIR FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS IS PRODUCING BRING GALE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER BETWEEN 1530-1630 
UTC DID NOT PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION AND FAILED TO MEASURE 
PEAK WINDS TODAY. A SHIP NEAR 14.2N 95.8W REPORTED 39 KT WINDS 
AT 1730Z. INITIAL WINDS BASED SOLELY ON GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND 
FORECAST...WHICH INDICATE MAX WINDS BELOW STORM FORCE AT 1800Z. 
MAXIMUM SEAS ESTIMATED AT 20-22 FT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 
BELOW GALE FORCE SAT MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. 
ANOTHER STRONG GALE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W...THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 
05N110W TO 08N124W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION N OF THE ITCZ 
PRODUCING EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 115W 
AND 130W. A 1023 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 36N130W ANCHORS A WEAK 
RIDGE N OF 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. MODERATE-FRESH TRADE WINDS 
PREVAIL S OF RIDGE W OF 115W. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST 
NW PORTION SAT. FRESH S WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
SAT EVENING...WITH SEAS TO 8-10 FT NW PART.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE 20 KT WINDS IMMEDIATELY 
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW 
THROUGH SAT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 FT EARLY SAT MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL