000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC FRI JAN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...COLD AIR AND STRONG HIGH 
PRES FOLLOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 03 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 
STRONG GALES ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THESE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE GALE CONDITIONS 
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 22 FT OVER 
WATERS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORM FORCE WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 
LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FT GENERATED BY THE 
GAPE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER PACIFIC WATERS FROM 03N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W BY LATE SAT...BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 8 FT 
WELL W OF 110W BY MON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N104W...THEN ITCZ 
AXIS TO 09N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 125W IS SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF A SHARP 
MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING PAST 135W. 1022 MB HIGH PRES RELATED TO 
THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N131W AND IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ITCZ. 
UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS WORKING IN 
CONCERT WITH THE FRESH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 

A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE 
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT BETWEEN 09N TO 13N W OF 125W. THIS IS IN 
PART DUE TO THE NE TRADE WIND FLOW...BUT IS MOSTLY DUE TO 
LINGERING NW SWELL. 

LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A 
SHARP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO THE NORTH 
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SAT AND REACHING 140W BY EARLY SUN. 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FOR THE WATERS N OF 25N W OF 
135W BY LATE SAT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM. THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA SUN INTO 
MON...LEAVING THE FRONT TO STALL AN DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY...BUT A NEW ROUND OF RELATED NW SWELL WILL 
MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE 20-25 KT WINDS DURING 
PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
THROUGH SAT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 FT EARLY SAT MORNING.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN