000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC WED JAN 1 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                         
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SUPPORTING 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MAINLY AT 
NIGHT DURING PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE STRONG 
GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN WED AS LOW PRES IN THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD 
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THU AND INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF 
GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 18-19 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
STARTING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N97W... 
THEN ITCZ TO 09N113W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 110W EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE 
TROPICS TO NEAR 03N. PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING 
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA N OF 15N  
BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. LINGERING AREA OF NW SWELL WILL SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI...AS AREA OF 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS SHRINKS IN 
SIZE COVERING LARGE PORTION OF AREA W OF 120W TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 
09N-14N W OF 125W BY THU NIGHT. STRONG TRADES IN W CARIBBEAN ARE 
BEING FORCED ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. WINDS THERE WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT LATER THIS MORNING 
AND AGAIN THU MORNING...ENHANCED BY MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE.

$$
MUNDELL