000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC TUE DEC 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                         
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER S TEXAS/NE 
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO 
THE GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MEXICAN 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A 9 MB DIFFERENCE IN SEA LEVEL PRES 
BETWEEN COATZACOALCOS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND SALINA CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS. 
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GALE FORCE TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE WINDS MAY DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE 
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT...DIMINISHING EARLY WED. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 11 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GALES BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THU...ALLOWING GALES TO RETURN TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BY THU NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SAT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 07N89W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N89W TO 03N95W TO BEYOND 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE ALONG 
ROUGHLY 135W AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W TEXAS 
THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA THEN SOUTH TO 05N110W. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN HAD BEEN MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH 
OF THE GULF OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN 
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0236 UTC INDICATED WINDS 
TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF 
STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE IMPACTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS 
MORNING...BUT PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT UP TO 25 KT. 

FARTHER WEST...DECAYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL N OF 10N W OF 125W 
WILL MIX WITH FRESH NE SWELL FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 120W RELATED 
15 TO 20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN