000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310320
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC TUE DEC 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                         
HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG E COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO W 
OF COLD FRONT IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COLD AIR FORCED ACROSS 
THE CHIVELA PASS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GFS MODEL 
CONTINUES TO REDUCE PROBABILITY AND AREAL EXTENT OF GALES...WITH 
WAVE MODEL NOW SHOWING MAX SEAS 11 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG 
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
THU AND INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 18 
FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N98W. ITCZ FROM 06N98W 
TO 10N114W TO 07N120W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN 
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N114W TO 07N116W. LARGE PLUME OF MID 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS 
INTO MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN PART OF 
THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST 
OF WESTERN MEXICO FROM 23N106W TO 33N113W IS SUPPORTING FRESH NW 
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG TRADE WINDS IN 
SW CARIBBEAN ARE BEING FORCED ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS THERE WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT 
LATER THIS MORNING...ENHANCED BY MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE.

$$
MUNDELL