000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC MON DEC 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                         
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE E COAST OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO W OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 24N96W. 
COLD AIR FORCED ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW 
WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO 
WED MORNING. LAST TWO GFS MODEL RUNS AT 06Z AND 12Z HAVE BACKED 
OFF ON PROBABILITY OF GALES...AND 12Z MODEL DOES NOT SHOW 35 KT 
WINDS AT EITHER 10M OR 30M IN OPERATIONAL FCST. SO IF 18Z RUN 
CONTINUES TREND OF WINDS LESS THAN 35 KT...MAY NEED TO DROP GALE 
WARNING AND GO WITH 30 KT INSTEAD. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD 
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THU 
AND INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FT 
TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N101W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
05N101W TO 09N118W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN 
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 10N118W. LARGE PLUME OF MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS INTO 
MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN PART OF THE 
AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF 
WESTERN MEXICO FROM 23N106W TO 33N113W IS SUPPORTING FRESH NW 
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG TRADE WINDS IN 
SW CARIBBEAN BEING FORCED ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA INTO 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH PEAK INTENSITY DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS 
ENHANCED BY MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE.

$$
MUNDELL