000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC MON DEC 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRES BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  COLD AIR FORCED ACROSS 
CHIVELA PASS ALLOW WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY TUE AND SEAS TO BUILD TO 11 FT LATE TUE. 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES CENTER
WEAKENS TO 1021 MB AND SHIFTS NE.  LOOKING AHEAD...SECOND AND 
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEP GULF OF MEXICO THU BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FT TO GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU PERSISTING THROUGH SAT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N80W TO 04N97W...THEN
ITCZ TO 09N115W TO 07N125W TO 08N132W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS FROM 111W
TO 114W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM WESTERN TEXAS TO TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 10N125W BRINGS VERY FRY AIR MASS TO NORTHERN PART
OF E PAC N OF 20N E OF 130W.  JET CORE 75 KT JUST SE OF TROUGH
AXIS ADVECTS LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE UNTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND FEEDS CONVECTION OF STRONG COLD FRONT JUST OFF SE
TEXAS COAST.  

ABOVE TROUGH IS FORCED NE BY SIMILARLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CREST ALONG 130W-136W.  DRY AIR MASS ALSO UNDER CREST LEAVES
ITCZ ALMOST CONVECTION FREE...EXCEPT SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
75 NM OF AXIS FROM 11W TO 114W...JUST AT THE TIP OF THE
ADVECTING MOISTURE PATCH MENTIONED ABOVE.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER 1023 MB WELL N OF 30N QUICKLY GIVING WAY
TO DEEP LOW PRES CENTER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW
CORNER OF E PAC BY LATE TUE AND WED.  LOW PRES/COLD FRONT CARRY
STRONG SE-S BREEZE AHEAD OF ITS PATH AND LARGE SWELL TRAIN WHICH
ENCROACH INTO LOWER LATITUDES W OF 130W BY END OF WEEK.    

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN ALONG FORCE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS MOUNTAIN GAPS IN NICARAGUA INTO
GULF OF PAPAGAYO TODAY.  WINDS DIMINISH DURING DAYTIME HEATING 
AS THEY ARE COUNTERED BY SEA BREEZE ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN 
EARLY MORNINGS ENHANCED BY MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES N OF BASIN FUNNELS FRESH TO STRONG
NW BREEZE ALIGNED WITH GULF AXIS...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WINDS
VEER LATE TODAY.

$$
WALLY BARNES