000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC MON DEC 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD 
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO TUE MORNING WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS AND ALLOW WINDS TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL 
RAPIDLY BUILD TO 10 TO 11 FT LATE TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
QUICKLY DIMINISH WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT DISAPPEARS. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WILL SWEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO THU...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 
GALES TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THU NIGHT PERSISTING INTO 
SAT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 06N78W TO 
05N91W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ AND EXTENDS WEST TO 10N117W 
AND BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
60 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 06N78W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET IS ACTIVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO ON 
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA TO 20N120W. 
UPPER FORCING ON THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE AREA OF THE JET IS 
ENHANCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
12N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 
WITH LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR 
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS 
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...BUT 
RETURN TONIGHT AND REACH 25 KT BY TUE MORNING. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...1032 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS 
ENHANCING NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS 
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

WEST OF 110W...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG 130W THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCING 
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 30N130W. THIS IN 
TURN WILL ALLOW WHAT IS CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS 
FLOW TO INCREASE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W. 

NW SWELL RANGING IN HEIGHT FROM 8 TO 10 FT COVERS THE AREA N OF 
12N W OF 130W. BY MID WEEK...THIS WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD 
SEAS IN THE AREA WHERE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 10N TO 20N 
W OF 120W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN