000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC MON DEC 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND 
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TUE MORNING WILL 
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ALLOW 
WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY 
BUILD TO 10-11 TUE NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH 
WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DISAPPEARS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 04N91W...THEN ITCZ TO 
10N116W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM 32N106W TO 19N124W IS 
DIGGING SOUTHWARD W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT SE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 119W. WEAK SFC RIDGING PREVAILS 
N OF 22N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. AS A RESULT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT 
EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS... 
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 28N IN NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE ALLOWING DIURNAL 
FRESH GAP WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PULSE OF E-NE 
WINDS TO 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TUE MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL