000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC SUN DEC 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 06N87W TO 05N91W THEN ITCZ TO
05N100W TO 09N112W 09N125W TO 06N135W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM
99W TO 112W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 121W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS NE AWAY FROM BASIN AS
SHARP RIDGE CREST MOVES E ACROSS 140W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOLLOWS
TAIL END OF TROUGH A IT APPROACH SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST.  DRY
SUBSIDING AIR MASS S OF 17N AND E OF 100W PREVENTS ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT FOR CONVECTION.  VERY DRY UNDER RIDGE CREST ALSO.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES 1032 MB WELL N OF AREA MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WITH LINGERING AND SUBSIDING 8 FT SEAS FROM 06N TO 15N 
W OF 136W.  NEW SWELL TRAIN APPROACHING NW CORNER OF BASIN AS
CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE E.  SWELLS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT E PAC W OF 120W WITH 10 FT SEAS MON AND TUE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY BUT STRONG COLD FRONT 
MOVES INTO GULF OF MEXICO MON INTO TUE...ALLOWING WINDS TO GALE
FORCE INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE MORNING...PERSISTING INTO WED.

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
AS 1032 MB HIGH PRES BUILD N OF BASIN NW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT
ACROSS NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY THEN DIMINISHING LATE MON.

$$
WALLY BARNES