000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SUN DEC 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N90W...THEN 
 TO AN ITCZ FROM 06N90W TO 10N120W 07N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS A SHARP PACIFIC TROUGH 
DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF A RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA 
ALONG 130W N OF 25N.

FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COOL DENSE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. A 0320 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS 
TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 
AFTER THIS MORNING AS THE COOL AIRMASS MODIFIES. A STRONGER COLD 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO MON INTO 
TUE...ALLOWING WINDS TO GALE FORCE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BY TUE MORNING...PERSISTING INTO WED.

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING DIURNAL 
FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING. 
ANOTHER PULSE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE 
MORNING. 

FARTHER WEST...MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED S OF WEAK 
RIDGING. THE MAIN ISSUE REMAINS NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT 
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 125W FROM 
LATE TODAY THROUGH LATE MON.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG 125W FROM 10N TO 25N IS AIDING AREAS 
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN