000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC FRI DEC 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

ABBREVIATED MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N77W TO 04N83W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN FROM 04N83W TO 06N91W TO 08N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION... 

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EL PASO TEXAS NEAR 31N107W WITH 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 108W DIGGING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRES IN THE SW GULF 
OF MEXICO. INTERACTION BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES IN SOUTH TEXAS 
HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... 
ALLOWING STRONG GAP FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...INDICATED BY ASCAT DATA BETWEEN 
1530 AND 1630 UTC. 20-30 KT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH 
TO 20-25 KT SAT MORNING...THEN BECOME NEGLIGIBLE BY SAT NIGHT. 
ANOTHER MINIMAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING 
AND AGAIN WED MORNING AT PEAK DIURNAL DRAINAGE AS A STRONG COLD 
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TRADE WIND SURGES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL 
PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FRESH GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUNDAY.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT E OF A CUT OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N145W 
IS CAUSING MINOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION 
AREA W OF 133W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 137W AND ASSOCIATED FRESH 
E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT W OF 140W TONIGHT.
 
$$
MUNDELL