000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI DEC 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 03N80W TO 
02N83W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ EXTENDING TO 08N115W TO BEYOND 
07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION... 

SHARP UPPER TROUGHING OVER W TEXAS AND N CENTRAL MEXICO IS IN 
PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO 
SOUTHWARD TO 05N100W...SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 115W THROUGH SAT. 

THE UPPER TROUGHING IS ALSO SUPPORTING WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRES 
OVER THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG 
HIGH PRES OVER E TEXAS TO SUPPORT A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IN TURN HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SINCE 
MIDDAY YESTERDAY...AS NOTED IN IN ASCAT DATA FROM 04 UTC AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE STRONGER 
GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGHING DEAMPLIFIES AND 
LIFTS NE AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SW 
UNITED STATES. SEAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO BELOW 8 FT BY 
LATE SAT. LOOKING  AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING A STRONG 
GALE WILL SET UP BY TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH WED AS A STRONG COLD 
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS SUPPORTING 
FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS 
MORNING AS NOTED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC. THESE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD 
OF THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. 
SEAS ARE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 7 FT N OF 28N...BUT WILL START TO 
SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AS WINDS DIMINISH.

TRADE WINDS SURGES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF 
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FRESH GAP WIND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUNDAY.

DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF A CUT OFF UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 17N146W IS CAUSING MODEST CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 
18N W OF 135W...ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 138W S OF 
15N. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS AROUND 20 KT BETWEEN 
THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 18N AND 22N W OF 
135W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO DRIFT W OF 140W THROUGH TODAY. 

ALTIMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MWW3 WAVE MODEL 
INITIALIZATIONS INDICATING NW OF SWELL N OF 06N W OF 130W. THE 
MWW3 SHOWS THIS SWELL SLOWLY DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY 
SUNDAY.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN