000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC WED DEC 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N77W TO 4N80W TO 7N87W. ITCZ FROM 7N87W TO 
5N95W TO 9N130W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 132W-137W.

...DISCUSSION... 

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE FROM 40N135W TO 23N116W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N105W TO 
32N112W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF A CUT-OFF UPPER 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N148W IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY BROAD CIRROSTRATUS CLOUD SHIELD 
AND EMBEDDED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 130W. DEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED 
NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 13N133W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED LARGE 
AREA OF FRESH E-NE TRADES FROM 12N-20N W OF 130W. HIGHEST WINDS 
DEPICTED BY ASCAT NEAR 16N134W WERE RAIN CONTAMINATED.

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSING DIRECTLY OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BETWEEN 1530 AND 1630 UTC INDICATED MAX WINDS IN THE REGION WERE 
AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON THIS NEW DATA...A GALE WARNING IS NO 
LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
TO 8-12 FT THROUGH THU IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF AND 
LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT NE SWELL GENERATED BY GALES THE PAST 1-2 
DAYS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TO AROUND 110W THROUGH THU MORNING. 
LOOKING AHEAD...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PEAK WINDS REACHING 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT TIMES THU NIGHT 
THROUGH SAT...PARTICULARLY DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MOVING INTO NW PORTION ARE EXPECTED TO 
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AFFECTING MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W FRI. 
EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT ACROSS NW WATERS TONIGHT AND THU.
 
$$
MUNDELL