000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC WED DEC 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ENDING 
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 
TO 30 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AND TO 8-10 FT TONIGHT. 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO NEAR 110W WITH 
SEAS TO 9 FT TODAY. WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST 
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH 
SEAS OF 8-10 FT. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MARINE GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N77W TO 4N80W TO 7N87W. ITCZ FROM 7N87W TO 
5N95W TO 9N130W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 132W-137W.

...DISCUSSION... 

WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE FROM 35N130W TO 
20N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES 
W OF 120W. STRONG DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A 
LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 133W.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE SEAS 
GENERATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CREATING A 
LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. 
ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE NW PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST REGION TODAY AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AFFECTING 
MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W BY FRI. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 
FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS TONIGHT AND THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS 
NEW SWELL EVENT.
 
$$
DGS