000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED DEC 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE IN SRN MEXICO IS FUNNELING WINDS THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTEROMETER PASSES HAVE 
FAILED TO CAPTURE PEAK WINDS DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. GALES 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. LARGE SEAS TO 19 FT WILL PERSIST 
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 12-15 FT WED MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO NEAR 110W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT TODAY. 
REINFORCING HIGH PRES MOVING INTO TEXAS WILL ALLOW PRES GRADIENT 
TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PRODUCE 
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N93W...WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
09N123W AND BEYOND 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION... 

WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE FROM 35N130W TO 
20N114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES 
W OF 120W. STRONG DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A 
LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS 
FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 130W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SURFACE 
TROUGH INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING BETWEEN 130-135W 
WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
THAT SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THU.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE 
COAST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE 
SEAS GENERATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CREATING 
A LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 
110W. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE NW 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WED AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD 
THROUGH SAT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PEAKING DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WED. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT LATE TONIGHT.
 
$$
MUNDELL