000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC TUE DEC 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE IN SRN MEXICO IS FUNNELING WINDS THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
FAILED TO CAPTURE PEAK WINDS TODAY...BUT AN OSCAT PASS MORE THAN 
12 HOURS AGO AT 0634 UTC SHOWED 45 KT WINDS NEAR 15N IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. LARGE SEAS TO 
20 FT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 12-15 FT WED. FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO NEAR 110W WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT BY WED MORNING. REINFORCING HIGH PRES MOVING INTO TEXAS WILL 
ALLOW THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE 
THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N94W...WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
09N121W AND BEYOND 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION... 

WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SE FROM 35N130W TO 
20N114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES 
W OF 120W. STRONG DIVERGENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A 
LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS 
FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 130W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURFACE 
TROUGH INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 130-135W 
WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE TROUGH THAT 
WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THU.  

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE 
COAST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE 
SEAS GENERATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CREATING 
A LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 
110W. ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE NW 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WED AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD 
THROUGH SAT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PEAKING DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT LATE TONIGHT.
 
$$
MUNDELL