000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC TUE DEC 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING S INTO SRN MEXICO WILL FUNNEL WINDS 
THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THIS GAP 
WIND REGION THROUGH WED AT 1800 UTC WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
REACH 30 KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND PEAK AT 18-20 FT 
TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO REACH AS 
FAR AS 110W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BY WED MORNING. THE NAM REGIONAL 
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WED 
AFTERNOON AND WED EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE 
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES SIMILAR 
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI. SO DECIDE TO INCREASE WINDS AGAIN 
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT 26/0600 UTC...THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. A REINFORCING HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE STATE OF TEXAS 
WILL ALLOW THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS WED 
NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 05N102W. ITCZ FROM 05N102W TO 
08N105W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N 
TO 15N W OF 133W.  
.DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE SE ACROSS 
THE N WATERS FROM 32N128W TO NEAR 18N110W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 
AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
LOCATED BETWEEN 145W AND 150W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED 
AND INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 130-135W 
THIS MORNING. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WITH WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 18-20 SEC ALONG 
ITS LEADING EDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD COVERING 
MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W. THIS SWELL WILL MIX WITH 
NE SEAS GENERATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER 
TODAY...CREATING A LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS FROM 05N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 93W AND 110W BY WED AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PEAKING AT NEAR 25 KT DURING 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 
SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT DURING EACH PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS. 
 
$$
DGS