000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC MON DEC 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1616 UTC SHOWED SMALL AREA OF 35 KT 
GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 16N 94.7W IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING S INTO SRN MEXICO 
WILL FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. N-NE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TONIGHT... 
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT NEAR 50 KT BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z TUE. 
SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 15 FT BY THIS EVENING AND PEAK AT 18-
22 FT TUE MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO 
REACH AS FAR AS 110W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BY WED MORNING. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS TUE AFTERNOON 
THEN BELOW GALE FORCE 1N ABOUT 48 HOURS WED AFTERNOON AT 18Z.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N104W...WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
05N116W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 129W AND 136W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N132W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 20N115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 
AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
ALONG 150W WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED AND INDUCE A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 130-135W LATE TONIGHT...AND  
GENERATE A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 14N 
TO 19N W OF 136W NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH WED MORNING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WITH WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 18-21 SEC ALONG 
THE LEADING EDGE COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W. 
THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD COVERING 
MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 100W TONIGHT. THIS SWELL EVENT 
WILL MIX WITH SEAS GENERATED DOWNSTREAM OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TUE MORNING...CREATING A LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS FROM 5N-15N 
BETWEEN 93W-110W BY WED AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...PEAKING AT NEAR 25 KT DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS FROM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 
NEAR 8 FT DURING EACH PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 25N. THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WILL START TO WEAKEN 
LATER TONIGHT...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE 
REGION TUE. 
 
$$
MUNDELL