000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230311 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN DEC 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDING SWD OVER EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD THROUGH TUE TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL USHER IN A COLD AND DENSE AIR MASS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF. THE INDUCED NLY FLOW WILL RAPIDLY BRING N WINDS OF 20-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF BY EARLY MON MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO GALE FORCE MON AFTERNOON...REACHING TO 40 KT BY THEN. THE GALE FORCE WINDS THEN QUICKLY ATTAIN STORM INTENSITY ROUGHLY WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 13.5N95.5W BY LATE MON NIGHT AIDED BY THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W TO 12.5N97W GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT ARE FORECAST. THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH ON TUE TO ALLOW FOR THE STORM FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO JUST UNDER STORM STRENGTH...HOWEVER N TO NE GALE WINDS OF 35-45 KT ARE FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W TO 13N96W AT THAT TIME. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN INTO WED. N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W TO 12N98W BY LATE MON NIGHT...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W TO 11.5N98W BY TUE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ISSUE FOR THE GULF AND IMMEDIATE VICINITY WILL BE THAT OF THE RESULTANT SEA STATE. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 10 FT MON AFTERNOON IN THE GULF...AND TO MUCH HIGHER VALUES OF 20 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. N-NE SWELLS WILL SPREAD S TO SW AWAY FROM THE GULF MON AND TUE REACHING W TO NEAR 105W AND AS FAR S AS POSSIBLY 08N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 10N86W TO 06N100W TO 06N107W...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 06N115W TO 08N122W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 129W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N124W NWWD THROUGH 32N128W AND TO A CREST TO WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TO ITS E...THE SRN SEGMENT OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS SSW ACROSS NRN MEXICO...AND SW FROM THERE INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 14N114W. A JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM WELL W OF THE AREA IN THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC ENE THROUGH 17N140W...AND THEN SEWD TO 11N115W...THEN ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEWD TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS ROUGHLY ALONG A POSITION FROM 15N115W SEWD TO 08N110W TO 06N108W. OVERCAST TO BROKEN TO MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE S OF THE JET STREAM W OF 129W. BROKEN TO SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 120W-129W...AND WITHIN 450 NM SE OF THE JET STREAM E OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 107W-109W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM BRANCH W OF 130W...AND ALSO UNDERNEATH JET STREAM CLOUDINESS E OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR COVERING THE AREA TO THE N AND NW OF THE JET STREAM BRANCH DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE. SIMILAR DRY AIR IS NOTED TO THE SE OF THE JET STREAM ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE PRODUCING ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-113W. BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS IN THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE MOVING SSW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N E OF 128W...AND MOVING WWD N OF 19N W OF 128W. AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N133W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 32N129W AND TO NEAR 22N122W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 125W. THE 1030 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING AFTERWARDS ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 18-21 SEC ALONG THE LEADING EDGE HAVE REACHED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE W OF A LINE FROM 19N105W TO THE EQUATOR AT 113W BY MON MORNING...AND TO NEAR 93W BY LATE TUE AT WHICH TIME GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELLS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR TO W OF ABOUT 97W. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS BEGINS TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUE EVENING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT JUST NW OF THE AREA. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN PULSING BY LATE TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW KICKS IN. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AGAIN DURING MON AFTERNOON...AND MATERIALIZE AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT TUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH MON WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW OF 20-25 KT. BY MON EVENING...THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT. THE PRES GRADEINT THEN RELAXES BY EARLY TUE ALLOWING THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. $$ AGUIRRE