000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SUN DEC 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN MON MORNING WITH N WINDS OF 20-30 KT...AND QUICKLY  
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDING SWD BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUN INTO 
MON...THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING 
FOR THE STRONG NLY FLOW TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND 
OUT ACROSS THE GULF. MARINE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS NEXT EVENT TO 
REACH THE RANGE OF 30-40 KT MON AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 45 KT MON 
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE BRIEF GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS IN 
THE GULF WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 10 FT MON AFTERNOON...TO 15 FT 
MON EVENING AND TO 17-18 FT MON NIGHT AND TO EVEN HIGHER VALUES 
OF 18-20 FT BY TUE MORNING. WITH THE FANNING OUT OF THE WINDS 
AWAY FROM THE GULF MON THROUGH TUE...EXPECT WINDS OF FRESH 
INTENSITY TO SPREAD TO NEAR 105W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...AND SEAS TO 
10 FT TO REACH NEAR 100W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE LATE WED MORNING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC/TAFB HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N98W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N110W TO 07N120W TO 08N130W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 12N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 114W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N138W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR THE 
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A 
SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N TO 16N W OF 127W. 
THE 1032 MB HIGH WILL MOVE ENE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY 
WEAKEN. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE ITCZ 
ALONG 135W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF 
THE TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 9-10 FT. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 19-21 SEC 
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...ARE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
SEWD COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF 110W BY MON 
MORNING...AND W OF 100W BY MON NIGHT. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS 
A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 
22-23 SEC REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER BY TUE NIGHT.

PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...REACHING 20-25 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF 
7-8 THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN 
REGION THROUGH MON WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE HIGH PRES AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS 
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUN NIGHT WITH NW 
FLOW OF 20-25 KT. BY MON AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...THESE 
NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY TUE MORNING.
 
$$
GR