000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE DEC 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN 1850 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS 
SHOWED 30-45 KT WINDS STILL IN TEHUANTEPEC...ALTHOUGH MANY OF 
THE WIND BARBS WERE FLAGGED AS CONTAMINATED. WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 30-40 KT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...THEN TO 
30-35 KT BY THIS TIME WED. SEAS ARE UP TO 17 FT ALTHOUGH THE 
MAXIMUM SHOULD BE SUBSIDING TO 13-14 FT BY 24-48 HOURS. NE SWELL 
FROM THE WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL SW OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH 
THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 110W EXPECTED TO SEE 
SEAS OVER 8 FT BY TUE EVENING BEFORE THE SWELL STARTS TO DECAY 
AND SUBSIDE INTO WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N106W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N106W TO 09N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W...FROM 06N TO 
08N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ 
W OF 117W.

...DISCUSSION... 

1027 HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL W OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 38N138W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 32N128W TO NEAR 
20N115W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 32N133W ALTHOUGH A 
RECENT 2028 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NOTHING 
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE SW 
OF THE RIDGE JUST N OF THE ITCZ...WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 100W. LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL IS MIXING WITH THE ASSOCIATED NE TRADE WIND SWELL AND WITH 
LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE RESULT IS 
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT WITHIN THIS AREA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE NW SWELL HAS WAVE PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE AND IS 
PASSING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...EXPECTED TO REACH THE 
SW MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 2028 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO MAINLY MODERATE...WHILE A TIMELY ALTIMETER PASS 
ONLY INDICATED 3-5 FT SEAS N OF 30N. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH TO LIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE SE-S BY THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA DRAGGING A TRAILING TROUGH TOWARD THE REGION BY WED 
EVENING.
      
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AT 20-25 KT 
DURING THE PERIOD MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE THROUGH THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NE WIND WAVES FROM PAPAGAYO WILL COMBINE 
WITH NW SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT TO BUILD SEAS 8 
TO 9 FT TUE MORNING AND WED MORNING...PROPAGATING TO 92W OR 
SO EACH AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY