000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON DEC 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW ASCAT OR OSCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND NO RECENT 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY LAND BASED STATION MMIT. 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL 30-45 KT ALTHOUGH EXPECT THEM 
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 30-40 KT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...THEN TO 
30-35 KT BY THIS TIME WED. SEAS ARE UP TO 17 FT ALTHOUGH THE 
MAXIMUM SHOULD BE SUBSIDING TO 14 FT BY 24-48 HOURS. NE SWELL 
FROM THE WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL SW OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH 
THE AREA FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W EXPECTED TO SEE 
SEAS OVER 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SWELL STARTS TO DECAY 
AND SUBSIDE INTO WED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 05N107W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N107W TO 08N128W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W 
AND 103W AND ALSO BETWEEN 104W AND 107W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 06N124W TO 06N128W TO 09N137W.

...DISCUSSION... 

1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED W OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 
40N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N130W TO 20N111W. THE MOST 
RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE JUST N OF THE ITCZ...WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 14N W OF 100W. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH THE ASSOCIATED NE TRADE WIND 
SWELL AND WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE 
RESULT IS COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT WITHIN THIS AREA THAT ARE 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE NW SWELL HAS WAVE PERIODS IN THE 18-20 
SECOND RANGE AND WILL PASS S ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST 
THIS EVENING AND THE SE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES 
AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE 1656 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL 
LINGERING AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 45 NM 
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 30N AND ALSO FROM 26N TO 
28N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION IS LOOSENING AND 
WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS WITHIN 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH RESULTANT SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT.
      
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AT 20-25 KT 
DURING THE PERIOD MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE THROUGH THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NE WIND WAVES FROM PAPAGAYO WILL COMBINE 
WITH NW SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT TO BUILD SEAS 8 
TO 9 FT TUE MORNING AND WED MORNING...PROPAGATING TO 92W EACH 
AFTERNOON.

$$
LEWITSKY