000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160950 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON DEC 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MINIMAL STORM CONDITIONS OF 40-50 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX TONIGHT AND TUE SUPPORTING ONLY MINIMAL GALE WINDS OF 30-35 KT LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH WINDS FINALLY BELOW GALE FORCE LATE WED. THE MAXIMUM DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD REACH 30 KT LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THU... AND MAX AT 15-20 KT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. THE MAXIMUM SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 20 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND MAY BUILD A FEW MORE FT TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING ALONG 04N BETWEEN 92-107W TONIGHT. THIS MIXED NE AND SW WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW NEAR 10N110W ON TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 09N76W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W TO 10N90W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N99W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD THROUGH 06N117W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ FROM 86-133W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING WITH NW WINDS CURRENTLY AT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 26N EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY THIS EVENING...AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT ON TUE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY ON WED SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY WED NIGHT... AND BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS WILL PULSE AT 20-25 KT DURING THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN MAX AT 15-20 KT ON FRI NIGHT. THE NE SWELL PROPAGATING SW FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WILL MIX WITH NW SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT...AS WELL AS LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT AS FAR S AS 09N92W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N134W TO 10N107W WITH NE 15-20 KT TRADES S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 115W. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH THE ASSOCIATED NE TRADE WIND SWELL...AND ALSO WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS- EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE NW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO RELAXES. THE AREA OF NE 15-20 KT WINDS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 08-21N TO THE W OF 120W BY TUE MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON WED WITH NE-E 15- 20 KT TRADES ENHANCED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 10-15N W OF 120W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THU NIGHT. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE FROM 32N117W TO 10N140W LATE THU NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON FRI...THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER...WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE N OF 29N ON FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING AS FAR S AS 26N ON FRI NIGHT. $$ NELSON