000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160310 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON DEC 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN 1804 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 30-45 KT WINDS. WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO 50 KT STORM FORCE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS SINCE THAT PASS...AND STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON AS A COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO GET FUNNELED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH BACK TO GALE FORCE BY 18 UTC MON...PERSISTING AT GALE LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS ARE NOW UP TO 20 FT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF NE SWELL FROM THE EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL SW OF TEHUANTEPEC... WITH THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 113W EXPECTED TO SEE 8-11 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL BY 48 HOURS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT MISSED THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HOWEVER A 1938 UTC OSCAT PASS DID COVER THE GULF WATERS. NORTHERLY 30 KT WINDS WERE INDICATED N OF 29N...WITH 30-35 KT WINDS BEING FUNNELED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 24N TO 27N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF...AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. SEAS UP TO 11 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT MON NIGHT AS WELL. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N84W TO 07N100W TO 07N109W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N109W TO 09N116W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 111W AND 113W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 114W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THE W OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 39N134W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 16N104W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 20N W OF 130W BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOW MAINLY AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE HIGH/RIDGING HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS SURROUNDED BY AND MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AS WELL AS LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE RESULT IS COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT ROUGHLY N OF 09N/10N AND W OF 110W-115W. THE AREA OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SHIFT TO THE SE WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY TUE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BUILDING SEAS TO UP TO 8 FT DURING THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE DURING THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. NE SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO WILL COMBINE WITH NW SWELL FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO BRING SEAS TO 9 FT BETWEEN 88W AND 92W BY THIS TIME TOMORROW AND AGAIN BY 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY