000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150315 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN DEC 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE SEAS ARE 3-5 FT. THESE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW AND W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE SE-S. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E OF THE NORTHERN OPENING OF THE CHIVELA PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 12 UTC SUN...THEN TO 30-45 KT BY 18 UTC... AND THEN TO STORM FORCE AT 45-50 KT BY 00 UTC MON. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE OR SO MON...DIMINISHING BACK TO 30-45 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO UP TO 21 FT...AND WILL GENERATE A NEW IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE TO THE S THROUGH SW WELL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY PINCHED PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRONOUNCED TROUGHING ACROSS NW MAINLAND MEXICO...SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION... TROUGHING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND RIDGING W OF THE PENINSULA. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES WENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWING 30-35 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ...WITH 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...SPILLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN OPENING TO 21N. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN THE 8- 11 FT RANGE ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY ALTIMETER PASSES THERE LATELY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN FLATTENS SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE...THE WINDS WILL MANAGE TO FUNNEL THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE E PACIFIC W OF THE PENINSULA. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N82W TO 09N88W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 06N100W TO 09N120W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N125W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 38N132W EXTENDING A RIDGE WELL TO THE SE THROUGH 32N126W TO 16N114W. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 12N119W TO 05N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W. MORNING AND AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN FOURTH OF THE AREA...WHERE 8- 10 FT CONFUSED SEAS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN MIXED NE...SW...AND NW SWELLS. A NEW REINFORCING SET OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER TONIGHT HELPING TO BUILD SEAS TO UP TO 11 FT ON SUN. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT WILL COVER THE WATERS N OF 06N W OF 119W LATE MON AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS START TO DECAY. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG FLOW IS THEN FORECAST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL INITIATE THE STORM FORCE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HELPS TO BRING A RETURN OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS E OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THOSE WINDS IN PAPAGAYO WILL THEN DIMINISH BACK TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS TIME MON. $$ LEWITSKY