000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142147 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT DEC 14 2013

CORRECTED CONVECTION TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT 
TO SOUTHERLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE SEAS ARE 3-5 FT. THESE 
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS 
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO TO THE S. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E OF THE 
NORTHERN OPENING OF THE CHIVELA PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY 
SUN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 12 UTC SUN...THEN TO 30-45 KT BY 18 
UTC... AND THEN TO STORM FORCE AT 45-50 KT BY 00 UTC MON. STORM 
FORCE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE OR SO 
MON...DIMINISHING BACK TO 30-45 KT BY MON AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS 
WILL BUILD SEAS TO UP TO 21 FT...AND WILL GENERATE A NEW 
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF NORTHERLY SWELL WHICH WILL PROPAGATE TO THE 
S THROUGH SW WELL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AREA.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A VERY PINCHED PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRONOUNCED TROUGHING ACROSS NW MAINLAND 
MEXICO...SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDING 
FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION.. 
TROUGHING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND RIDGING W OF 
THE PENINSULA. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES WENT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWING 30-35 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS FROM 25N TO 28N WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
GULF...SPILLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN OPENING TO 21N. SEAS ARE 
BELIEVED TO BE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN 
ANY ALTIMETER PASSES THERE LATELY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THEN 
DIMINISHING BELOW GALE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN 
STABILIZES. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MANAGE TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GAPS INTO PORTIONS    
OF THE E PACIFIC W OF THE PENINSULA.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 05N100W TO 1008 MB  
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N115W TO 08N126W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
08N126W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 06N82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 107W AND 110W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 
122W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 
119W AND 123W IN AN AREA BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND 
TROUGHING.

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N 
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 38N132W EXTENDING A RIDGE WELL TO 
THE SE THROUGH 32N127W TO 12N105W. MEANWHILE 1008 MB LOW 
PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N115W. MORNING 
AND EARLY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH TO 
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN FOURTH 
OF THE AREA...WHERE 8-10 FT CONFUSED SEAS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN 
MIXED NE...SW...AND NW SWELLS. A NEW REINFORCING SET OF NW SWELL 
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER TONIGHT HELPING TO BUILD SEAS TO UP 
TO 11 FT BY SUN. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-11 FT WILL COVER 
THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 120W AND FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 120W BY 
LATE MON MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
       
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE THIS MORNING INDICATED 
THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS WHILE 
SOME REMNANT 8 FT MIXED NE AND SW SWELL LINGERS FROM 09N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. GAP WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR 
LESS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG FLOW 
IS THEN FORECAST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE STRONG COLD 
FRONT THAT WILL INITIATE THE STORM FORCE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC HELPS TO BRING A RETURN OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
E OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
 
$$
LEWITSKY