000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH 
VARIABLE WINDS AT 5-10 KT BY THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL  
SURGE THROUGH THE CHEVILA PASS LATE TONIGHT AND QUICKLY REACH 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE ON SUN. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SUN TO A MAXIMUM OF 45 KT WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 22 FT NEAR 13.5N97W ON SUN EVENING. THESE NEAR STORM 
FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO A 
GRADUALLY WEAKENING GALE LASTING THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. 
ALTHOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST STORM FORCE WINDS... 
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST AT 09N76W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 
09N85W...THEN DIPS SW TO 06N93W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N123W... 
THEN SW TO 09N128W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A 
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 
07N140W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER
THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 06N E OF 80W INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 06N85W 
AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 06N90W TO 05N97W TO 11N115W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 12N124W TO 20N121W.

...DISCUSSION... 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 14N W 
OF 108W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED FROM 12-20N W OF 115W.
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH THE ASSOCIATED NE TRADE WIND 
SWELL...AND WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL  
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF 
ENHANCED TRADES. THE NW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THEY 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO THE N OF 18N W OF
134W TONIGHT...WITH THE COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11 FT WITHIN
THIS AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON MON WITH THE AREA OF
NE 15-20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 12-20N
TO THE W OF 120W.
       
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT 
DURING THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS 
SUGGESTING THE NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 6-9 FT LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH THIS PATTERN REPEATING 
EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE FORECAST EARLY 
THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-30 
KT/SEAS 6-9 FT THIS EVENING...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE 20 
KT WINDS REACHING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN 
TO RELAX ON SUN...WITH ONLY NW 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED BY MON 
NIGHT. 
 
$$
NELSON