000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140321 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT DEC 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE EARLY SAT. THESE MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...MOVING E OF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CHIVELA PASS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ANOTHER 30-35 KT NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 36 HOURS...WITH WINDS INCREASING UP TO AT LEAST 45 KT BY 48 HOURS AS SEAS ALSO BUILD TO UP TO 19-20 FT. BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS BECOME MORE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...THE LONG DURATION OF THE CURRENT WIND EVENT GENERATED A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WHICH HAS NOW PROPAGATED WELL SW-W AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 114W AT 8-11 FT. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MIXING WITH SW AND NW SWELL WITH REINFORCING NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS N OF 18N W OF 137W BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...THEN N OF 23N W OF 127W BY THIS TIME SUN. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N86W TO 06N100W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N112W TO 10N124W TO 08N131W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS E OF 80W...FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE TROUGHING IS OVER NW MEXICO WITH RIDGING W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 1030 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 38N133W TO 18N108W. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 27N...SPILLING SOUTHWARD TO 21N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE U.S. GREAT BASIN WITH NEW TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED JUST W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SAT...INCREASING TO 30 KT THROUGH THE DAY. A LOCAL RESEARCH STUDY/ANALYSIS TOOL CURRENTLY INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE NEAR 0 PERCENT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO MANAGE TO SEEP THROUGH GAPS IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10 FT ON SAT...WITH THE WINDS EXTENDING DOWN TO 21N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL ALSO OCCUR NEAR CABO CORRIENTES SAT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...REMNANT 8-9 FT SEAS THAT WERE GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN PAPAGAYO EARLY FRI WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IS ANTICIPATED IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 8-9 FT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SAT EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...1010 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N112W AND IS MOVING W AROUND 5-10 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS LOW AND BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING TO THE NW FROM IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGHING/LOW AND THE RIDGING TO THE N-NE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND NW WATERS THIS WEEKEND. SHORTER PERIOD NE WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH THE NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MENTIONED IN THE FIRST SECTION ABOVE...AS WELL AS WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE. $$ LEWITSKY