000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI DEC 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE CURRENT LONG DURATION GALE EVENT CONTINUES WITH N-NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE OF 10M AND 30 M WINDS SUGGESTS THAT THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE STRENGTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AROUND THE 9-14 FT RANGE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W. CURRENT 8-11 FT SEAS DUE TO MIXED NE AND SW SWELL FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W- 113W WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY DAYBREAK SAT...WINDS DROP TO LESS THAN 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. HOWEVER....THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL KICK IN EARLY ON SUN. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THOSE WINDS...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN THROUGH THE GULF BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES OF ABOUT 1031 MB DROPS SSE ACROSS NE MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG RIDGING POKING SWD TOWARDS SE MEXICO. NORTHERLY GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALIZED AS 30-35 KT EARLY ION SUN...BUT THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE OF 35-45 KT BY SUN EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND GUST GUIDANCE FROM THE GRIDS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE BRIEF INSTANCES OF GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KT WITH THIS NEXT EVENT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 05N95W TO 06N104W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 08N109W TO 10N125W TO 09N132W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 05N92W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA SW TO NEAR 32N122W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO AN UPPER LOW AT 25N134W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSW TO 15N136W...AND SE TO 08N133W TO NEAR 04N114W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 14N108W WITH A RIDGE NWD TO 23N119W TO 32N125W THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES IS SWLY AS A VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND STRETCHES NEWD THROUGH 23N128W TO ACROSS THE BASE OF THE FIRST TROUGH...AND CONTINUES NEWD TO 25N128W AND TO ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS BETWEEN THE JET STREAM BRANCH AND THE ANTICYCLONE ARE TRANSPORTING EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NE AND E TO OVER MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND TO PORTION OF CENTRAL MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING NNE ALONG THE JET STREAM BRANCH...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG INTENSITY FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 122W AND 126.5W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 13N122W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BRINGING DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IS NOTED TO THE NW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH...AND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION E OF ABOUT 102W ...EXCEPT FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 81W WHERE DEEP CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVER UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW THERE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. SURFACE...A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO W OF THE AREA AT 28N143W. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N128W TO 09N133W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT AS IT TRACKS WWD THROUGH SUN. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 HIGH CENTER NEAR 33N129W SW TO JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 21N141W. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE WITH LOWER LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 13N TO 19N W OF 116W. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL ARE NOTED FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 113W-119W. NE TO E SWELLS GENERATED BY ONGOING GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PROPAGATE W THROUGH THE AREA OF THE TRADES FURTHER REINFORCING THE ALREADY PRESENT 8 FT SEAS THERE. THIS AREA THAN EXPANDS EWD TO 98W BY SAT. NW SWELL WILL ALSO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROPICS BEGINNING ON SAT NIGHT...AND WILL BUILD SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 18N TO THE W OF 132W ON SUN. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR BY LATE TONIGHT...AND TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY ON SAT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 23N TO 26N WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT N WINDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SAT EVENING AND INTO SUN. ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING ON SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE