000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC THU DEC 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE AND 
SEAS OF 10-16 FT CONTINUE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
EARLY FRI THEN SHOULD DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BY 30 
HOURS...THEN QUICKLY TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SAT. THE LONG 
DURATION OF THIS GALE WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO GENERATE AND SEND 
A PLUME OF NE SWELL WELL TO THE SW OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W 
AND 117W MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELLS. THIS AREA OF 
COMBINED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE W...MERGING WITH 
A NEW AREA OF 8-10 FT PRIMARILY NE SWELL WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED 
BY A LINE FROM 24N132W TO 11N114W TO 06N114W TO 21N135W TO 
24N132W BY THIS TIME SAT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 03N89W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 03N89W TO 07N105W TO 10N120W...THEN RESUMES FROM 
10N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 100W AND 106W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS REACHING FROM 32N135W TO BEYOND 29N140W. ASSOCIATED SEAS 
OF 8 FT OR GREATER ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST NW OF THE WATERS... 
AND THE FRONT WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH LATER TONIGHT...
SHIFTING W OF 140W ON FRI.

1026 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N128W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SE 
TO NEAR 20N110W. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
ITCZ FROM 14N123W TO 08N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGING...TROUGH...AND THE FRONT TO THE NW IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 
133W WHERE 8-9 FT SEAS ARE ALSO OCCURRING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
MODERATE OVER THAT AREA BY EARLY FRI ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG LEVELS MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS THROUGH EARLY SAT DURING THE TIMING OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW OFF THE NEARBY LANDMASS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ARE SPILLING OUT 
OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 21N WITH SEMI-PERMANENT 
TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGING. WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AND MORE 
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS BOTH THE RIDGING AND 
TROUGHING BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.

$$
LEWITSKY