000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC WED DEC 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE 30-35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE 
TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
FLUCTUATE UP TO 30-45 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING 
HOURS THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH 30-35 KT IN BETWEEN THROUGH 48 
HOURS. THE LONG DURATION OF THESE WINDS WILL SEND A PLUME OF NE 
SWELL TO THE SW-W WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
REACHING TO 113W BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 
WILL PEAK AT 10-16 FT DURING THE TIME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 04N87W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO 10N117W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 113W 
AND 116W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W...AND FROM 11N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 126W AND 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES MANAGE 
TO MOVE IT JUST INTO THE NW CORNER EARLY THU BEFORE STALLING OUT 
LATER THU...THEN SHIFTING BACK W OF 140W AS A REMNANT TROUGH. 
SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL WILL TOUCH 30N140W BUT WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE DISCUSSION WATERS. 

1028 MB HIGH PRES IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 35N130W WITH A 
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SW THEN S ACROSS THE WESTERN 
PORTION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER 
PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES 
OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS. NE WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH LONGER 
PERIOD NW SWELL IS RESULTING IN 8-9 FT SEAS W OF A LINE FROM 
22N140W TO 15N125W TO 03N140W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS AS THE NW SWELL DECAYS.

TO THE SE OF THE HIGH/RIDGING...SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGHING OVER NW 
MEXICO WILL INDUCE FRESH WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA SPILLING S TO 20N. CURRENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS 
WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 20 KT AND SEAS JUST LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG WITHIN 
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 09N88W BY THU NIGHT 
INTO EARLY FRI AS TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
INCREASE.

$$
LEWITSKY