000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED DEC 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 40 KT. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRI. THE LONG DURATION GALE EVENT WILL RESULT IN A PLUME OF NE SWELL AT 8-11 FT PROPAGATING TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N86W TO 08N96W TO 08N106W TO 09N120W TO 10N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 135W-137W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W-120W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING SWWD TO 23N129W TO SW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 18N140W. A NARROWING RIDGE IS W OF THE TROUGH FROM 32N135W SW TO NEAR 23N140W. A VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM IS NOTED SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N140W NEWD TO 18N130W TO 22N120W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND TO FAR NRN MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAM BRANCH ARE TRANSPORTING AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. LOWER CLOUDS UNDERNEATH THE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS MAY CONTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. SMALL CELLS OF ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE WITHIN 400 NM SE AND 330 NM NW OF THE UPPER TROUGH. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEAR 20N101W SSW TO 11N102W TO 05N102W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 102W. MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED OVER THAT SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHIFT NE TO OVER FAR SRN CALIFORNIA BY THU EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SEWD JUST INTO THE FAR NW PORTION. ONLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THAT PART OF THE AREA WITH THIS NEW UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. SURFACE...A COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA NEAR 145W WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND. A WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE IS ALONG A POSITION FROM 27N121W TO 20N129W. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 116W FROM 09N TO 12N...AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE FRI AS IT TRACKS W AROUND 10 KT. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES WELL TO THE NE OF THE AREA THROUGH 32N136W TO NEAR 23N141W. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE WITH LOWER LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8- 10 FT GENERALLY FROM 03N TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GAP FLOW BY FRI AS TRADE WIND FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ AGUIRRE