000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED DEC 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
SW GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING IN BEHIND THE 
FRONT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
WHICH HAVE INCREASED FROM FRESH TO STRONG SEVERAL HOURS AGO TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KT 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD 
TO 10-16 FT WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR. GALE FORCE WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. ALSO...A PLUME OF NE 
SWELL AT 8-11 FT WILL PROPAGATE TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE 
IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N96W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 08N96W TO 09N110W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N115W TO 
10N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 131W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1036 MB HIGH 
PRES OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER NW 
MAINLAND MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER  THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN 
SIGNIFICANTLY AND AS A RESULT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY 12 HOURS.

1018 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N126W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS FROM 29N131W TO THE 
LOW TO 20N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND 1030 
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 44N130W 
HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS TO ALLOW FOR 
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO FRESH LEVELS. LINGERING 8-10 FT NORTHERLY 
SWELL COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 126W. THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED 
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING BY THEN.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING POKING INTO THE WESTERN WATERS TO THE SW-W 
OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS. 
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRODUCING 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT N OF 02N W OF A LINE FROM 02N134W TO 
15N125W TO 21N140W. THESE SEAS WILL DECAY TO 8 FT FROM 13N TO 
16N W OF 135W BY 48 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 11N112W TO 
07N114W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 
12N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS INTO THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GAP FLOW BY FRI AS TRADE 
WIND FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 

$$
LEWITSKY